The REAL March Madness: Montana’s Prospective Planting Report
The last day of March is considered a holiday in our office as the awaited USDA
prospective planting numbers are released. Cassidy Marn and I have locked in
our wheat and barley acreage guesses with only 1 winner......
Cassidy Marn Guesses:
Winter Wheat: 1.9 Million Acres
Spring Wheat: 3.1 Million Acres
Durum: 600,000 Acres
Barley 750,000 Acres
Record: 0-3-1
Sam Anderson’s Guesses:
Winter Wheat: 1.9 Million Acres
Spring Wheat: 3.0 Million Acres
Durum: 700,000 Acres
Barley 900,000 Acres
Record: 3-0-1
The 2021 report:
Winter Wheat: 1.75 Million Acres, Up 13%
Spring Wheat: 2.9 Million, Down 12%
Durum: 710,000 Acres, Up 3%
Barley: 950,000 Acres, Up 7%
And the WINNER is: Sam Anderson! WOO!!!!
Let us dive into some of the highlights of the USDA prospective planting
report.
We will likely see seeders out this weekend. The conditions are dry, producers
will be putting in pulses and barley to start.
Barley We are seeing a 7% increase in barley acreage. Which is accounting for
60% of ALL U.S barley acreage. There is a reason why we are called the barley
capital of the world (Fairfield MT).
We have heard of some contractual increases but also some decreases. The
feed market into Canada has been driving a big demand for left over barley
from last year. This increase could account for the 7% planting increase. I
would also like to mention that there was a 210,000-acreage overestimate on
the 2020 report.
Durum is up 3% and compared to last years estimates the actual planted
acreage was 120,000 acres higher. Prices have shown some strength lately due
to increase grocery demand and dry conditions in eastern Montana and
western North Dakota. If we get some rain, we could see those numbers
increase in may as durum is planted later.
Winter wheat up 13% at 1.75 million acres. This increase has a lot to do with
poor planting conditions the previous year. Yet we did not have the best
planting conditions the fall of 2020. Winter wheat prices are currently
favorable, if fall conditions were better, we could have seen a much higher
number. Hindsight is 2020
Spring wheat acreage is down 12% from the record 3.3 million acreage last
year. This is likely due to the current moisture conditions and seeing an
increase in durum, flax, lentils, chickpeas, peas, and hay. If we see moisture
events in eastern Montana, we could possibly see the spring wheat plantings
increase shifting from pulses. Watch the weather closely in Montana’s
Platinum square.
2021 Montana Prospective Planting:
U.S All Wheat up 5% at 46.4 million acres
Crop Area: 9.8 Million Acres (9.79 Million Acres Last year)
Barley: 950,000 Acres, Up 7%
Winter Wheat: 1.75 Million Acres, Up 13%
Durum: 710,000 Acres, Up 3%
Spring Wheat: 2.9 Million, Down 12%
Canola: 160,000 Acres, Up 3%
Flaxseed: 115,000 Acres, Up 10%
Chickpeas: 130,000 Acres, Up 12%
Lentils: 440,000 Acres, Up 19%
Dry Edible Pea: 500,000 Acres, Up 2%
Hay: 3 Million Acres, Up 5%
Corn: 100,000 Acres, Down 13%
Oats: 60,000 Acres, Down 14%
2020 Prospective planting versus actual.
Barley-1.1 million acres 890,000 Acres Actual
Winter Wheat-1.6 million acres, 1.55 Million Acres Actual
Durum-570,000 acres, 690,000 Acres Actual
Spring Wheat-3.3 million acres, 3.3 Million Acres Actual
Some notable highlights in other states:
ND Durum down 18%
ND Corn up 69%
ND Soybeans Up 22%
ND Lentils up 18%
Kansas winter wheat up 11%
Take a look at the full report: https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/pspl0321.pdf
Take a look at the most recent crop conditions report CLICK HERE
If you need help sourcing wheat and barley ingredients for your business, we would love to help. We will connect you with several options that provide numerous methods of delivery. All our wheat and barley suppliers can conduct negotiations virtually to fit your country or states regulations if needed, otherwise social distancing is not a problem out here =)
-Sam Anderson
WBC@mt.gov
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